Thirty years ago the Soviet Union was at the beginning of a long campaign in Afghanistan, the average person was lucky to have an advanced recording technology called a "VHS tape," and Mohammad Hosni Mubarak took control of Egypt, the most populous nation in the Arab Middle East. This week, the last of these beginnings came to an end when millions of Egyptian protestors succeeded in toppling one of the longest standing rulers in the 5,000-year history of Egypt.

But as with all eras, Hosni Mubarak's established norms, some national and others regional, which have now irreversibly changed. What type of government may take form in Egypt in the coming weeks and months is yet to be seen, however, it is highly unlikely that any new government can afford to repeat the mistakes of the previous regime which eliminated pluralistic political participation in the formulation of both domestic and foreign policy.

Many different global players had an investment in the outcome of the drama that finally concluded in Egypt with Mubarak's departure. So after this transformational moment, who are the winners and who are the losers?

Goodbye Hosni Mubarak

The Winners

1. The People of Egypt — After only 18 days, the people of Egypt succeeded in removing a ruler who had governed Egypt for three decades. But the victory for the people of Egypt is far greater than the removal of one person like Mubarak or his family. The fall of Mubarak means the fall of various other players who had been involved in central roles in Mubarak's political party and have used this power to garner wealth while half of Egypt's population lived below the poverty line. The extent to which the people of Egypt remain in the winner's category depends on what happens from this day forward. Transfer of power from an octogenarian dictator to the "supreme military council" is not exactly democratic reform. The next few weeks and months will determine if the generals now in control of Egypt will be willing to genuinely cede power back to the people, and — if this process comes to fruition — if Egypt's future will be bright.

2. The Palestinian People (Especially in Gaza) — For several years, the Mubarak regime has played a direct role in the coordinated siege of Gaza. The siege has, of course, had a devastating effect on the economic status and humanitarian needs in Gaza, and has effectively led to the collective punishment of Gaza's civilian population. The siege has been a major rallying point among Arabs and Muslims and people of conscience around the world who have been appalled by the callous treatment of a largely civilian population, and it should go without saying that Egypt's role in this siege was wildly unpopular in Egypt itself. The regime regularly began demonizing elements in Gaza — creating a boogeyman — to justify the siege among its population as a national security interest. Only days before the fall of the regime, the detested Ministry of Interior, now under house arrest, blamed the horrific bombing of a church in Alexandria, which risked the onset of sectarian violence, on Palestinians from Gaza.

A democratic Egypt, or at least an Egypt which must account for popular sentiment in its foreign policy making, is highly unlikely to cooperate with the Israeli siege of Gaza. Certainly, Israeli and American pressures to maintain this policy will persist regardless of what government is formed, but this newly displayed and remarkable popular outcry will factor heavily into the state's decision calculus in a way that didn't exist before. The Palestinian people, especially those in Gaza for whom Egypt and the Rafah crossing are the only access to the outside world, may finally find relief from the ongoing struggle to secure food and fuel, and travel without threat of prolonged imprisonment or death in a smuggling tunnel.